“The Four Horsemen of Bad Decisions”
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Title: You’re About to Make a Terrible Mistake!
Author: Olivier Sibony
Category: Psychology & Human Behavior, Business Strategy, Mindfulness & Wellbeing, Workplace & Company Culture
What if the title of a book could call you out before you even open it? That's exactly what Olivier Sibony's 'You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake!' does, and it's strangely reassuring because it means our mistakes follow predictable patterns.
Sam and Sophie walk through Sibony's four horsemen of bad decisions: the narrow frame, confirmation bias, short-term emotion, and overconfidence. They share vivid examples like a CEO fixating on an acquisition without considering alternatives, a company ignoring pricing red flags, and the ten-ten-ten rule for cooling emotional impulses. The episode also covers practical fixes like the premortem, red teams, and reference class forecasting.
If you've ever wondered why smart people make terrible choices—or want to catch yourself before the next one—this episode names the traps and gives you tools to sidestep them. The takeaway: judge decisions by the process, not the outcome.
You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake! by Olivier Sibony. For the full written summary and thousands more, check out the 7 Minute Books app at 7minutebooks.com/app — unlimited access from $2.99 a month, $9.99 a year, or $19.99 lifetime.
Chapters
00:00The Four Horsemen Introduction00:37Narrow Frame and Its Fix01:19Confirmation Bias and Red Team01:55Short-Term Emotion and Ten-Ten-Ten02:40Overconfidence and Calibration03:18Process Over Outcome
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